In 2015, these seismic shifts in public opinion culminated in the Obergefell v. Hodges ruling, which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. After this, it seemed for a time that there might—mercifully—be something of a thaw in the politics of sexual and gender identity. During the 2016 election, the issue more or less receded into the background, especially following the nomination of Donald Trump. While the 2016 Republican platform still called for the primacy of “traditional marriage,” the 2016 Republican nominee would refrain from establishing a clear stance on the issue one way or the other. At one moment, he would even cast himself as a better “friend” to the community than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama—albeit with the aim of further demonizing Muslims after the Pulse nightclub massacre in Orlando, Florida.
Of course, none of it was sincere. As easily as Trump would make this sort of outreach, he would also promise to overturn Obergefell and put out lists of potential Supreme Court nominees who were very likely to do so. For his running mate, he would pick a leader of the Christian right, notorious for his homophobia even within the Republican Party itself. Still, even mere changes in rhetoric were still remarkable to see compared to how the party had previously dealt with the issue. And while Trump’s ultimate victory could never be construed as anything near a progressive development, the way in which he won—winning over support from traditionally Democratic voters who saw him as an independent moderate—perhaps could have represented proof to Republicans that they might be best served leaving issues of sexuality and gender be.
A little over six years since then, we now know this would not happen. Right-wing attacks on sexual and gender minorities did not end with their retreat on issues like gay marriage. Instead, they simply found a new target: transgender people. Starting with so-called “bathroom bills” in the mid-2010s, continuing with the shifting and escalation of attacks during the Trump administration, and expanding rapidly at the state level throughout the Biden administration, the assault on transgender rights has grown to be one of the most important issues in American politics today. Discrimination against transgender people is now one of the main parts of any modern red-state policy agenda. Demonizing transgender people is now central to nearly every Republican political campaign. And the ultimate aim of their scheme is clear: the criminalization and eradication of non-traditional gender identities.
The aim of this piece is to account for the political nature and history of this scheme.