In theory, a conclave is a secret election: the cardinals gather together in closed quarters, without any assistants or any way of communicating with the outside world. In fact, it’s so buttoned-up that, since 1800, the ballot papers used in voting, as well as any notes taken during the assembly are burnt.
Yet, many are desperate to get any crumb of information possible about who will be the next pope. Due to the extraordinary powers of the Supreme Pontiff, the stakes are high. Thanks to the very particular, unique status of the Vatican, the Pope runs a sovereign micro-state, while also leading one of the world’s largest religious communities with some 1.3 billion members. Fairly or unfairly, popes are often credited with an outsized influence over the way the world is managed.
This power has long drawn the interest of intelligence operatives across the globe, who have devoted considerable time and resources to spying on the microscopic Vatican—especially when it comes time to select a new Pope.
In the first half of the 20th Century, European powers commonly worked to influence the conclave ballots through their prelates and ambassadors. In return, the most political potential candidates made sure to curry favor with governments across the ideological spectrum. During the 1939 conclave, for example, the cardinals easily elected Eugenio Pacelli despite the simmering tensions engulfing Europe as it headed toward World War II. Pacelli offered a little something to all factions: he was Italian, spoke German, and had negotiated concordats with Italy and Germany, abstaining from condemning either regime. Meanwhile, he was also a notorious anti-communist, which had endeared him to his anti-Nazi predecessor Pius XI, and also enabled him to successfully engender trust from the British and the French.
The next four conclaves took place during the Cold War, which, given the global nature of the struggle between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the sky-high stakes, and the power of the Vatican, drew the attention of both superpowers. Their intelligence operatives scrambled to keep their governments appraised of what might happen, and what the new Pope’s diplomatic posture might be.